Disturbance 1. A broad low pressure area has formed in association with the tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 70%. Formation chance through 5 days is also high at 80%.
Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Gonzalo will steer generally westward and then take a west-northwest track. The cyclone has been strengthening quickly and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid, strengthening should occur.
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