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July 21, 2020

Tropical Weather Disturbances Today

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.  Gradual development of this  system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days.  This system is expected to cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight, move over the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday.  Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 30%. Formation chance through 5 days is medium at 40%.

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2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure area located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continue to get better organized, and a tropical depression appears to be forming.  If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on this system later this afternoon. Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less favorable conditions should limit additional development of the system by the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 90%. Formation chance through 5 days is also high at 90%.

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