Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Hurricane Erin is expected to become even larger while moving over the western Atlantic and along the U.S. east coast beaches. Erin is currently located about 665 miles SW of Bermuda moving NW at 7 MPH with maximum sustained winds of 110 MPH. A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.

Disturbance 2. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:  A tropical wave is located over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or this weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Disturbance 3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):  A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the end of this week, this system could encounter a less favorable environment, limiting its development chances after that time.  Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.