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September 11, 2020

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  A tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.  This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 40% and formation chance through 5 days is at 60%. 

Disturbance 2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.  Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 10% and formation chance through 5 days is at 30%. 

Disturbance 3. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is forecast to develop into a tropical depression within the next few days while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 70% and formation chance through 5 days is at 90%. 

Disturbance 4. Another tropical wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa. A tropical depression could form while the system moves slowly. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 10% and formation chance through 5 days is at 40%. 

Disturbance 5. Tropical Storm Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend. There is risks of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall to Bermuda. Swells are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern U. S. into the weekend.

Disturbance 6. Tropical Storm Rene is no threat to the U. S. Maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. After strengthening during the next couple of days, weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.

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