Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Southwestern Gulf:  A tropical wave near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in organization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 2. Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is now moving northward over cooler water, and the chances of tropical or subtropical development are diminishing. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Disturbance 3. Tropical Storm Erin continues westward and is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Erin is currently located about 1400 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands moving west at 20 MPH with maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH. A west-northwestward motion is expected beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. However, interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.